Local modeling

COVID-19 modeling predicts peak omicron cases in 2-3 weeks

SAN ANTONIO – COVID modeling, a complex mathematical equation, helps predict when we may finally see a drop in COVID-19 cases. Dr. Juan Gutierrez, chair of mathematics at UTSA, predicts a peak in omicron cases in two to three weeks.

“Until the world is vaccinated, we will be at risk of COVID. It could come back. The next variant, sigma, could emerge at any time, ”said Gutierrez.

Gutierrez said COVID modeling takes into account many variables. It examines the degree of infectivity of a particular strain, the vaccination rates in a region and the mandates in place, among other factors.

By mid-July 2021, Gutierrez estimated that Bexar County would have 50,000 to 200,000 cases and 750 to 3,000 deaths. The actual cases and deaths are 100,000 and 1,400 respectively.

“Our future is at stake, so please get vaccinated. Please use face masks until this passes, ”Gutierrez.

He warns that more COVID variants will continue to appear if we don’t vaccinate more people.

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